Preseason Rankings
Big East
2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
11 Villanova 85.7%   3   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 8 12 - 6 +16.1      +8.9 11 +7.2 20 61.4 334 0.0 1 0.0 1
17 Seton Hall 71.4%   4   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 10 11 - 7 +13.7      +6.9 25 +6.8 25 71.6 101 0.0 1 0.0 1
23 Xavier 66.8%   6   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 10 10 - 8 +12.7      +7.6 18 +5.1 45 64.4 294 0.0 1 0.0 1
27 Marquette 61.9%   8   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 10 10 - 8 +12.3      +7.5 19 +4.8 53 71.4 106 0.0 1 0.0 1
36 Providence 55.9%   9   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 9 - 9 +11.3      +5.0 52 +6.2 28 68.1 199 0.0 1 0.0 1
37 Creighton 54.2%   8   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 9 - 9 +11.2      +7.2 22 +4.0 65 71.1 117 0.0 1 0.0 1
54 Georgetown 44.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 8 - 10 +9.6      +6.9 26 +2.8 95 79.2 18 0.0 1 0.0 1
56 Butler 40.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 8 - 10 +9.4      +5.1 51 +4.3 61 65.7 267 0.0 1 0.0 1
93 St. John's 11.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 16 5 - 13 +4.7      +2.4 105 +2.3 108 75.5 44 0.0 1 0.0 1
97 DePaul 10.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 17 5 - 13 +4.4      +3.8 75 +0.6 142 72.4 87 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Villanova 2.9 36.3 19.6 13.6 10.1 7.3 5.2 3.6 2.4 1.3 0.6
Seton Hall 3.8 20.5 17.7 14.7 12.4 10.3 8.4 6.9 4.8 2.9 1.4
Xavier 4.3 15.6 15.2 14.2 12.1 11.7 10.2 8.3 6.2 4.4 2.2
Marquette 4.4 14.0 14.3 13.2 13.2 11.2 10.2 8.9 7.5 4.9 2.5
Providence 4.8 11.1 12.4 11.8 12.2 12.1 11.6 10.2 8.6 6.4 3.6
Creighton 4.9 10.7 11.6 12.3 12.5 11.8 11.5 10.3 8.9 6.7 3.8
Georgetown 5.6 6.4 8.5 10.1 11.0 11.5 12.4 12.2 11.5 9.7 6.7
Butler 5.7 5.7 8.1 9.2 10.8 11.7 12.4 12.3 12.6 10.5 6.8
St. John's 7.8 0.8 1.8 3.0 4.5 6.4 8.5 11.3 15.7 21.7 26.1
DePaul 7.9 0.8 1.4 2.6 4.2 5.9 7.9 11.2 15.8 21.9 28.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Villanova 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.0 3.1 4.5 6.6 8.1 10.3 11.8 12.4 12.5 11.0 8.2 5.4 1.9
Seton Hall 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.7 4.1 6.0 7.5 9.7 10.7 11.9 11.5 10.9 8.9 6.7 4.3 1.9 0.7
Xavier 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.5 3.7 5.3 7.4 9.0 10.5 11.2 11.3 10.9 9.5 7.3 5.0 3.0 1.3 0.4
Marquette 10 - 8 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.5 4.1 6.2 7.9 9.7 10.3 11.3 11.1 10.5 8.6 6.7 4.7 2.5 1.2 0.3
Providence 9 - 9 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.1 3.7 5.3 7.0 9.1 10.6 11.1 10.9 10.5 9.1 7.6 5.5 3.5 1.9 0.8 0.2
Creighton 9 - 9 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.1 3.9 5.5 7.3 8.8 10.4 11.0 11.0 11.1 8.9 7.3 5.3 3.2 1.9 0.7 0.2
Georgetown 8 - 10 0.2 0.8 2.1 3.6 5.6 7.5 9.3 10.8 11.2 11.2 10.0 8.9 7.1 5.1 3.2 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1
Butler 8 - 10 0.2 0.8 2.1 3.8 6.1 8.2 9.8 10.8 11.3 11.4 10.2 8.1 6.7 4.6 3.2 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0
St. John's 5 - 13 2.0 5.2 8.9 11.6 13.4 12.9 11.9 9.6 8.2 6.2 4.5 2.8 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
DePaul 5 - 13 2.3 5.7 9.8 12.0 13.5 12.9 11.7 9.6 7.8 5.7 4.0 2.5 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Villanova 36.3% 26.9 7.6 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Seton Hall 20.5% 13.5 5.7 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Xavier 15.6% 10.1 4.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Marquette 14.0% 9.2 3.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
Providence 11.1% 6.9 3.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Creighton 10.7% 6.6 3.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
Georgetown 6.4% 3.9 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Butler 5.7% 3.3 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
St. John's 0.8% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
DePaul 0.8% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Villanova 85.7% 26.4% 59.2% 3   12.6 13.4 11.7 10.2 8.4 7.0 6.3 5.2 4.0 3.2 2.7 0.9 0.0 14.3 80.5%
Seton Hall 71.4% 16.2% 55.2% 4   5.9 7.4 7.9 7.9 8.1 7.2 7.1 6.6 5.1 4.1 3.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 28.6 65.9%
Xavier 66.8% 13.1% 53.7% 6   3.7 5.3 6.4 6.8 6.7 7.2 6.6 6.5 5.8 5.3 4.8 1.6 0.1 0.0 33.2 61.8%
Marquette 61.9% 11.8% 50.2% 8   3.2 4.8 5.8 6.1 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.8 5.5 5.4 4.4 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 38.1 56.8%
Providence 55.9% 9.5% 46.4% 9   2.0 3.5 4.5 4.7 5.4 5.9 5.9 6.1 5.7 5.5 5.1 1.5 0.0 0.0 44.1 51.3%
Creighton 54.2% 8.8% 45.4% 8   1.9 3.1 4.3 4.8 5.5 5.9 5.7 6.2 5.5 5.0 4.9 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 45.8 49.8%
Georgetown 44.9% 6.3% 38.6% 1.1 2.2 2.8 3.5 3.7 4.4 5.3 5.7 5.6 4.8 4.5 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 55.1 41.2%
Butler 40.1% 5.6% 34.5% 0.8 1.6 2.8 3.0 3.7 4.5 4.8 5.2 4.7 4.2 3.7 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 59.9 36.5%
St. John's 11.9% 1.3% 10.6% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.5 1.9 2.1 2.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 88.1 10.7%
DePaul 10.2% 1.0% 9.3% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.9 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 89.8 9.3%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Villanova 85.7% 2.1% 84.8% 67.2% 40.8% 22.0% 11.3% 5.5% 2.6%
Seton Hall 71.4% 2.4% 70.3% 50.2% 26.8% 13.0% 5.8% 2.7% 1.2%
Xavier 66.8% 4.1% 64.8% 43.3% 21.1% 10.0% 4.3% 1.9% 0.7%
Marquette 61.9% 3.5% 60.2% 39.6% 18.8% 8.5% 3.8% 1.6% 0.7%
Providence 55.9% 4.3% 54.0% 34.3% 15.8% 6.9% 2.9% 1.1% 0.5%
Creighton 54.2% 4.1% 52.1% 33.1% 14.8% 6.6% 2.7% 1.0% 0.4%
Georgetown 44.9% 3.7% 43.0% 25.0% 10.5% 4.0% 1.6% 0.6% 0.3%
Butler 40.1% 3.0% 38.5% 22.7% 9.1% 3.3% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2%
St. John's 11.9% 2.2% 10.7% 4.8% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
DePaul 10.2% 1.6% 9.4% 4.4% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 5.0 0.0 0.8 6.4 23.7 36.1 24.7 7.4 0.8 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 4.9 0.0 1.2 8.6 26.7 35.4 21.4 6.1 0.6 0.0
2nd Round 99.5% 3.2 0.5 5.3 20.3 33.0 27.6 10.8 2.3 0.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 87.7% 1.6 12.3 35.9 34.3 14.2 3.0 0.2 0.0
Elite Eight 58.2% 0.7 41.8 43.2 13.3 1.6 0.1
Final Four 31.0% 0.3 69.0 28.2 2.7 0.1 0.0
Final Game 14.6% 0.1 85.4 14.2 0.3
Champion 6.5% 0.1 93.5 6.5